A framework for an online nodal agency for automated processing of all the data
In recent past , humanity has
suffered an increasing number of
natural disasters affecting more
than 2.5billion people, killing
478,100 and causing economic
losses of about US$690bn (UNEP/
GRID-Arendal, 2005). Some of the
distinctive instances are: December
2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and
its concomitant tsunamis, The US
eastern coast and Central America,
hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Mitch, Stan
and Wilma in September-October
2005, Pakistani earthquake of 2005,
and now the current avian influenza
in Asia and Europe. Natural and manmade
tragedies, such as earthquakes,
foods, nuclear catastrophes, pose an
ever-present challenge to emergency
services. Victims and societies at
large have responded differently in
each case. Some were heroic, some
responsible but many panicked
and responded irrationally. This
aggravated the already bad situation.
All of them could have responded
more effectively if they were better
informed and aright managed.
It is clear that despite excellent efforts
by many groups, the wealth of data
residing with various organizations is
not often effectively utilized in disaster
management. Disaster management
is not a linear process that can be
documented easily in a flow chart
with a readily apparent beginning and
absolute end. Rather, it is a cyclical
process of approximation, response
and re-calibration that involves
many different doers whose roles
in relation to one another, are likely
to dynamically change based on
circumstances and the stage in the
process. The one constant evident in
the process is the chaos and entropy
that drives the system of rules.
The existing technology can provide
disaster managers the important
products that could save lives, reduce
damage to property, mitigate overall
damage, conserve resources and
ameliorate human suffering. The
current situation has many defects
and has eclectic method for disaster
management. To develop effective
architectures and technologies that meet
the needs of the disaster management
there must be a precise understanding
of the disaster management lifecycle.
All the Communities must be
synergized to define the disaster
management system. They must
necessary be associated with the cycle
of data ontogenesis, dissemination,
analysis and review. There should be an
accurate understanding of the dynamics
between these ingredients and the
"interfaces" that this kinetics imply.
Only with such an understanding,
can we effectively pattern the process
and derive technology solutions
that map well into the business
model of disaster management.
The profile of a pre-disaster situation
can be built in terms of four distinct
groups; namely the hazardous entities,
the victims, the intermediaries whose
presence or absence can aggravate/
mitigate the impact of the disaster,
agencies holding potentially useful
information in disaster management.
The paper discusses the construction
such a profile by quantification
of the disaster potential of the
hazardous entities and the impact
of the intermediaries. Enormous
amount of information for such a
vulnerability evaluation and disaster
management is available disparate
Governmental and public agencies.
The paper proposes a framework for
an online nodal agency for automated processing of all the data to build
up such profiles. This can help in
evolution of comprehensive disaster
mitigation and management plans.
The paper briefly discusses how such
a system would have responded in
situations such as Bhopal gas disaster
Knowledge discovery
for mitigation
Data integration
The information required for disaster
mitigation comes from the variety
of databases and resources used by
divergent bureaux. A large amount
of information in the public domain
about the accessibility by rail, road,
and air can be augmented, updated
using remote sensing technologies.
The information about the land usage
pattern, water supply, power supply,
sewage disposal, fire services, and
availability of health services is
available with local administration.
The telecommunication companies
control the vast networks that can be
used as the channels of information
to reach the individuals, families and
population masses in the disaster area.
The power supply companies, the water
supply companies, the hospitals and
the public health departments, banks
and insurance companies, the police
and other security agencies have vital
information which can be used for
the disaster mitigation. Normally,
all these databases are independently
designed, maintained and used by
these agencies. In order to cope up
with the disaster in fast and highly
coordinated manner, information
sharing among these agencies is
vital. Police, fire departments, public health, civil defense, and
other organizations not only have
to perform efficiently individually,
but also in a unified manner.
public health, civil defense, and
other organizations not only have
to perform efficiently individually,
but also in a unified manner.
Apart from the factual information
from different agencies the disaster
mitigation system must obtain
the information on regulatory /
standardization parameter from the
appropriate authorities. The databases
need to be talking in a real-time manner
on a common platform. The data
integration will require a certain level
of standardization and compulsory data
sharing. This requires a national level
effort in the form of law enactment and
clear regulations guiding everyone.
Such a disaster mitigation authority
may have a centralized or distributed
architecture to handle the local disasters and the regional or national disasters.
Hazard evaluation
To develop effective architectures and
technologies that meet the needs of
the disaster management there must
be a precise understanding of the
disaster management lifecycle. All the
communities in disaster mitigation
must be associated with the data cycle
of genesis, dissemination, analysis and
review. There should be an accurate
understanding of the dynamics
between these ingredients and the
"interfaces" that this kinetics imply.
Only with such an understanding,
can we effectively pattern the process
and derive technology solutions
that map well into the business
model of disaster management.
The vulnerability analysis
The first step in any disaster mitigation
management effort would be
vulnerability analysis of the area and
the population. Broadly speaking, the
vulnerability of a system, population
or individual to a threat, relates to its
capacity to be harmed by that threat.
Vulnerability varies widely across
peoples, sectors, and regions. The
occurrence of extreme events, their
emplacement with the environmental
declensions is usually a local or
regional phenomenon, while the
expected outcomes are global ones.
Continuous scientific discussions
exist about general concepts of
vulnerability and the development
of indicators, which are suitable for
the different scales and conditions.
The methodological challenge is to
develop a reporting framework that
can include qualitative, quantitative
appraisal of vulnerability. Such an
appraisal must be context-specific and
linked to data on adaptive capacity.
Ideally, vulnerability assessments
should be continuously up-dated.
Although assessments are often carried
out at a particular scale, there are
significant cross-scale interactions, due
to the interconnectedness of economic,
social, and environmental systems.
Catastrophic value of hazard (CVH)
CVH is an index of the net damage
that a hazardous entity can inflict on
its surroundings. The CVH analysis is
based on extensive cross-referencing
and data authentication using data
drawn from variety of resources.
The CVH indicators should be used
to evaluate adaptive strategies and
measures for monitoring development
processes. The CVH analysis
applications borrow the necessary
information from the databases. Two
approaches in CVH assessments can
be: Risk-based and Exposure based.
Point catastrophic failure (PCF) value
There is a long chain of intermediaries
between the hazardous entity and the
potential victims. The presence or the absence of these intermediaries
can aggravate or mitigate the damage
caused by the hazardous entity on
the surroundings. The hazard can
be compared to the fountainhead
with a specific CVH while the
intermediaries may increase or
decrease the severity of the damage
depending on their PCF value.
The methodology to evaluate the
threat posed to the population,
environment and various natural by
the man-made hazards in tem of CVH
and PCF values can be devised by,
appropriate expert agencies. Different
available methodologies / pattern
must be compared, evaluated and
updated on continuous basis. The
disaster mitigation mechanism must
use the factual data, regulatory /
policy framework and the damage
assessment methods (provided by
experts). to generate the CVH, PCF
and vulnerability values these values
can be utilized on a real time basis.
The CVH and PFC values can not
only identify the current threat levels
but also generate recommended set
of actions. Insertion of any new
hazard, intermediary, deviation
from the standards, and change in
the standards or the assessment
methods will automatically lead to the
reappraisal of the status. Hence the
system functions like the conscious
system capable of responding to
the ever-changing surroundings.
The system may run own
housekeeping programs which
continuously cross check the inputs
provided by the different agencies
and bring out the inconsistencies.
Common determinations can be,
that it is unyielding to assess CVH
as an integral part of the causal
chain of risk and to appreciate that
changing vulnerability (conscious &
awareness) is an effective strategy
for risk management. Vulnerability
analysis, along with conscious &
awareness particularly those aimed
at advancing sustainability can be
identified by the following elements:
- Multiple interacting perturbations
and stressors/stresses and stressors/stresses and
the sequencing of them;
- Exposure beyond the presence
of a perturbation and stressor/
stress, including the Manner
in which the coupled system
experiences hazards;
- Sensitivity of the coupled
system to the exposure;
- The system's capacities to cope
or respond (resilience), including
the consequences and attendant
risks of slow (or poor) recovery;
- The system's restructuring
after the responses taken (i.e.,
adjustments or adaptations);
- Nested scales and scalar
dynamics of hazards, coupled
systems, and their responses.
Case study: bhopal
gas tragedy
Description
The incident occurred at
approximately 0030 on Monday 3rd
December 1984 in the suburbs of
Bhopal, India. It is one of the worst
industrial air pollution disasters in
the world, affecting nearly 200,000
people. The source of the incident
was a large pesticide factory
owned by Union Carbide. One of
the intermediates of the pesticide
production was methyl isocyanate
(MIC). The poisonous methyl
isocyanate (MIC) gas leaked out from
one of the tanks in the Union Carbide
factory. On the day of the incident
there was an increase in temperature in
one of the tanks to 38 C which brought
MIC close to the boiling point. The
increased pressure
exceeded the
design value of
the tank causing
it to rupture a
relief valve.
Approximately
40/41 tones of MIC
vapors escaped
through a 33m
high atmospheric
vent-line. The
sodium hydroxide
scrubber designed
to neutralize MIC was not in operation at that time.
When it was eventually switched on
the scrubber was unable to cope with
the volume of MIC released. The
release continued for about 90 minutes
into the cool, dry stable atmosphere of
Bhopal. The cloud of gas that formed
over the factory slowly drifted towards
the city in the darkness of the night.
Some residents from the affected area
realized that something was wrong
and tried to escape; but many of
them never had a chance and simply
perished. The gravity of inadequate
direction was that the workers at
Bhopal train station were found dead
approximately two hours after the
release. Five days after the incident
the toll was more than 2500. Within
a month of the incident toll more than
3500 precious life perished. Some
of the striking irregularities observed
were.
During the initial 48 hours
following incident no
measurements of atmospheric
MIC were taken.
Sampling team had little idea
of what they were looking
for in terms of chemicals.
Patients though were provided
with symptomatic treatment
but hospitals could not cope
up further as toll climbed.
There was little toxicologically
understanding of MIC.
Lack of emergency management
systems within the factory.
No specific hazard contingency
plan for emergency services,
No detailed meteorological plot
of the movement of plume.
Integrated mitigation response (IMR)
If a hypothetical mitigation system
as described above was in place at
Bhopal before the disaster, it could
have generated advisories, cautions
and start warnings on following
matters in terms of CVH and PCF
values.
Storage of hazardous chemicals
(High CVH) dangerously
close to populated areas
(High Vulnerability).
Nonexistence of adequate storage
safety equipment, to cater for
public safety. (High PCF)
Procedural periodic checks by
a central agency observer for
third party checks (High PCF).
A complete lack of knowledge
on toxicological implications
of chemical. (Moderate PCF)
Road evacuation plans to be put
in place at all times. (High PCF)
Absence of mechanism to detect
toxic chemicals in the atmosphere
and track spread. By ensuring
multi point wind movement
tracking system. (Very High PCF)
List of all the locals and their
phone details linked at all times,
so as to provide them with
advisory from area affected
central system. (Moderate PCF)
It is quite likely that these cautions
would have been ignored before
the disaster. But they would have
definitely help in more effective post
disaster management / response in the
following areas.
Identification / prioritization
of the population requiring
emergency evacuation.
Identification of transport,
accommodation, public
health, communication
resources at disposal.
Coordinated and effective
response for the immigration
of people from the disaster
area. Identification of the
appropriate clinical procedures
for treatment of the victims.
Emergency treatment
of the victims.
Conclusion
Presently much of the effort to compile
the data, carry out vulnerability,
CVH, PCF value analysis looks like
proverbial carving of the mountain in
search of a rat. The truth is out there
for anyone cares to see. There is a
shortage of electricity, water supply
is inadequate, malnourishment is
common, crimes rampant, there is no
approach road for the village, a fire
tender can never hope to make its
way through the maze of by lanes and
yet the people are going about their
life. The system must deal with the
situation as is and not as it ought to be.
The normal life with all its well-known
problems is irreversibly damaged
by the disaster. It creates waves like
a stone thrown in the pond. The
integrated disaster mitigation apparatus
can generate more comprehensive
as well as prioritized set of 'things
to be done' in pre-disaster as well as
post-disaster phases as against any
manual system. The disaster mitigation
machinery functions like war waging
machine only with an opposite aim.
Disaster mitigation management
require a very coordinated and a rapid
response. Today the technology offers
us an unprecedented chance to rise
to the occasion in a well thought out
and transparent manner. Investment
in this vital area will definitely
save the societies and nations from
a lot of death and destruction
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Squadron Leader
Mudit Mathur
is a
commissioned officer
in Indian Air Force. He
has undergone advanced
training in the field of
aerospace remote sensing and its
applications from National Remote
Sensing Agency (NRSA), Vikram
Sarabhai Space Center (VSSC) & Ecole
Militare (Paris) mr.mudit@gmail.com
Wing Commander
YD Andurkar is a
commissioned officer in Indian Air Force,
mechanical engineer
by profession. He has
undergone training in the field of
aeronautics, and is Postgraduate from
IIT Chennai & FMS New Delhi ydandurkar@gmail.com