Early warning
system for Tsunami
in the Indian Ocean SHAILESH NAYAK
The entire national Early Warning System is targeted
to be made operational by September 2007
Tsunami is a series of traveling
waves of extremely long
wavelength generated
primarily by earthquake
occurring below and near the ocean
floor. Underwater volcanic eruptions
and landslides can also generate
tsunami. Though the return period of
tsunami is infrequent, the destruction
done by tsunami is widespread,
in terms of life and property. The
most devastating tsunami occurred
in December, 2004 affected the
coastal countries of the entire Indian
Ocean. It became necessary to set up
a system in India to monitor seismic
activity and sea level to evaluate
potentially tsunamigenic waves and
disseminate tsunami alert or warning.
The project on "Establishment of
National Early Warning System
for Tsunami & Storm Surges in the
Indian Ocean" was approved by the
Government of India in October 2005
for implementation at a cost of Rs.125
Crores with the Ministry of Earth
Sciences as the nodal ministry. The
major participants in the Project are
institutions under Ministry of Earth
Sciences [Indian National Centre
for Ocean Information Services
(INCOIS), National Institute of
Ocean Technology (NIOT), Project
Directorate of Integrated Coastal
and Marine Area Management
(ICMAM), India Meteorology
Department (IMD)], Department of
Science and Technology [Survey of
India (SOI)], Department of Space
(Indian Space Research Organisation
(ISRO) and National Remote Sensing
Agency (NRSA)], and Council of Scientific and Industrial Research
[National Institute of Oceanography
(NIO) and National Geophysical
Research Institute (NGRI)].
The entire national Early Warning
System is targeted to be made
operational by September 2007 after
necessary testing and simulations.
This Project has been identified by
the Government of India as a thrust
area in its basic agenda for 2005.
The system comprises of network
of seismic stations, bottom pressure
recorders, tidal stations, coastal
radars, and automatic weather stations,
receiving data from all these sensors
in near time, mainly using INSAT
satellite and integrating them through
decision support system and issue
alert or warning as appropriate.
Seismic stations
In the vicinity of India, there are
two tsunmaigenic zones, Andaman-
Sumatra trench and the Makran
coast. It is necessary to monitor
seismic activity along these two areas.
This has been planned by installing
digital seismometers, GPS receivers,
and strong motion accelerometers
and real time communication links
to estimate moment magnitude
reliably. This will help to provide
first level of advisory within
minutes of earthquake occurrence.
The installation and interconnecting
17 broadband seismic stations and for
real time communication of data to
the Central Receiving Station (CRS)
of India Meteorological Department
at New Delhi and to the Parallel CRS
at INCOIS, Hyderabad is envisaged
to be completed by August 2006.
Monitoring Sea Level
The initial tsunami warning or alert is confirmed by monitoring sea level in deep sea as well as on coast. This is being implemented by installing bottom pressure recorders (BPRs) and tide gauges to monitor sea level changes. India is installing such bottom pressure recorders in both the Bay of Bengal (10) and in the Arabian Sea (2) at appropriate locations. Four BPR's have been deployed by NIOT in the Bay of Bengal. Data from one buoy is successfully transmitting data to NIOT that is being received in real-time at INCOIS through VSAT connectivity. ISRO is working on the indigenous development of BPR's.
50 Tide Gauges are planned to be
installed as part of this network
(36 by Survey of India and 14 by
NIOT). Data from Six Tide stations
installed by NIOT at Chennai,
Kandla, Vizhinjam, Mangalore,
Minnie Bay, and Rangath Bay
is being received at NIOT and
retransmitted to INCOIS through the
VSAT. The data from eleven tide
gauges is already being received at
SOI, Dehradun by VSAT network
established by ECIL. INCOIS has
initiated actions to receive SOI Tide
gauge from Dehradun to INCOIS
in real-time through VSAT.
Enhancement of Ocean
observations
Five Coastal Observing Radars and
two Current Meter Moorings are
planned to be installed. HF Radars
have been successfully used to
detect and measure the strength of
Tsunami Surface signatures. One
such radar has been installed near
Chennai for experimental purposes.
Upper Ocean and Surface Met-
Ocean data from 25 surface drifters
(atmospheric pressure, winds, subsurface
temperature, surface velocities),
XBT Lines (for collecting Temperature
Profiles), Moored Data buoys (Air
Pressure, Air Temperature, Humidity,
Wind Speed & Direction, SST, SSS),
and 25 Automatic Weather Stations (Air
Pressure, Air Temperature, Humidity,
Wind Speed & Direction, Rainfall)
are being acquired. Drifters and
XBT are being implemented through
NIO. Moored Buoy data is being
received from NIOT through VSAT.
Creation of high resolution
topography and bathymetry
Coastal topography and bathymetry
play very crucial role in running
inundation models. A very detailed
survey of the Indian coastline
has been initiated, wherever such
information was lacking.
Bathymetry data base at appropriate
resolution and format required
for Tsunami and Storm Surge
Models has been created using
all the existing sources of data as
well as by conducting surveys at
selected critical coastal locations.
NRSA is responsible for Topographic
Mapping of 15, 000 Sq km area
(for 7500 line km and 2 km inland
from the coastline) with airborne
LIDAR & Digital Camera data in
conjunction with GPS control survey
using photogrammetric techniques.
NRSA has already acquired required
airborne data for Machilipatnam
- Kochi stretch i.e. for an area of Kochi stretch i.e. for an area of
3,300 sq. km. Of this, processing
DEM generation from Nagapattinam
to Cuddalore has been completed.
The generation of digital topographic
maps for the balance 3040 sq km is
progressing and this is expected to
be completed by April - May 2007.
The aerial flying for the remaining
11, 700 sq km, is under progress.
Coastal vulnerability modeling
and inundation mapping
The information about magnitude,
location, and depth at which an
earthquake has occurred has been used
to model travel time, inundation, and
run-up of tsunami to coastal regions.
Since running such models in real
time is not advisable, it is necessary
to generate scenarios (in thousands)
of various possible earthquakes and
generate look-up tables for possible
travel time. A travel-time atlas
has already been generated. The
information about sea level can also
provided to this model for validating
earlier estimates of travel time,
inundation levels, and run-up.
The possible risks of coastal inundation
due to tsunami and storm surge by
using tsunami and storm surge models
constructed using numerical equations
have been implemented. Inundation
Maps of coastal locations have been
generated by ICMAM on 1:4000
scale for 5 scenarios of historical
Earthquakes and Storm Surges.
Setting up a dedicated
early warning centre
An Interim Tsunami Warning Centre,
following the Standard Operational
Procedure, has already been made
operational at INCOIS since July
2005. This centre receives earthquake
and tsunami advisories from India
Meteorological Department, Japan
Meteorological Agency, Pacific
Tsunami Warning Centre as well as
Tide Gauge Data from SOI, NIOT
and other International Stations. This
arrangement has worked well during
the Tsunami that hit Java on July 17,2006 wherein it was confirmed within
an hour that the Tsunami was not
likely to hit the Indian Coastline.
Communication of real-time data
from Seismic Stations, Tide Gauges,
BPR's to the early warning centre
is very critical for generating timely
tsunami warnings. An end-to-end
communication plan has been worked
out in collaboration with the Indian
Space Research Organisation that
envisages use of INSAT DRT for one
way and INSAT MSS for two way
communication from Tide Gauges
and DART Buoys. The installation
of INSAT Satellite Communication
facilities at INCOIS will be ready
by March 2007. In addition, VSAT
network, dedicated broadband
internet and INMARSAT reception
facilities are also being established.
The Virtual Private Network for
Disaster Management Support
(VPNDMS) node has been set up
at INCOIS that facilitates reliable
connectivity to the Ministry of Home
Affairs for dissemination of Warnings.
In addition, INCOIS is also working
on technological options that facilitate
dissemination of warnings directly
to the public through Mass Media,
IMD Cyclone Warning Centers, PFZ
Electronic Display Boards, Mobile
SMS Messages, Telephones, etc.
Education
An easily understandable publicity
material on earthquake, tsunami, and
storm surges in vernacular languages
is being created to be distributed
to the general public. A dedicated
multi-lingual web-site is also being
developed to provide information
on Tsunamis and Storm Surges.
Shailesh Nayak Director, Indian
National Centre for
Ocean Information
Services (INCOIS),
Hyderabad, India